As noted in last week’s email blast: “we’ve been working hard to update our fiscal estimates for I-732. We plan to post some updated spreadsheets in the weeks ahead, but for now we are delighted to report that our current analysis is that I-732 will (as intended) be very close to revenue-neutral.”
This post contains the promised spreadsheets and other analysis. Please note that these are still works in progress and that all files referenced in this post can be found in this Dropbox folder.
A summary of where we stand is in this Revenue Forecast document. Some comments on the Summary tab for FY2019, the first year for which the carbon tax is at $25/ton:
Regarding the files in this Dropbox folder:
Okay, that’s enough for one update, but note that this is not the end of the story because there are more details to work through. In addition, state budget numbers can change over time, e.g., the state’s revenue estimate for the current biennium went up by over $100 million between September and November 2015. And of course remember that in context $100 million is not all that much: the Citizen’s Guide to the Budget shows a state budget of over $40 billion a year, and the sales tax exemption for grocery store food is valued at over $1 billion a year.
Bottom line: Our current analysis is that I-732 will (as intended) be very close to revenue-neutral. If that changes in the months ahead we’ll let you know!
Talk to your friends and neighbors about I-732