I-732 Election Results Summary

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Yes On I-732

 

 

 

 

 

Findings

  • I-732 won significant support from census tracts with majority-minority population makeup and from the most liberal precincts in the state, including most of Seattle.
  • The best predictor for support for I-732 appears to be partisanship, with regions that trend Democratic supporting at far greater margins than those that trend Republican.
  • Relatively weak voter turnout (77% in 2016, compared to 85% in 2008) likely led to an erosion of support for I-732.

Results by County

For a ballot measure to win statewide a campaign must either win decisively in the greater Seattle metro area (>60%) or run competitively in SW Washington, NW Washington, and Eastern Washington. While I-732 did win King County, the margin was narrow and while I-732 was competitive in most of NW Washington, that competitiveness did not carry over to SW Washington or Eastern Washington. The table below highlights a handful of counties to illustrate the spread of support. Results for every county can be found by clicking here:

 

County Voters support for I-732 Number of Precincts* >55% I-732 Support County Share of Total Wa Voters
King 51% 1,041 30.6 %
Spokane 32% 1 7.3%
San Juan 56% Not Available .3%
Pierce 37% 19 10.8%
Whatcom 44% 43 3.5%
Yakima 32% 2 2.4%
Kitsap 40% 19 3.9%

*A precinct is a small neighborhood level tract used to organize election matters like vote totals and caucasus. Precincts range in size but generally include a few hundred people.

Washington’s Climate Action Base

While Initiative 732 did not pass, the campaign identified 41% of the electorate that is ready to take action on climate change right now. Future climate efforts will have a considerably easier time with this base of support in place. Rather than identifying and mobilizing 51% of the electorate, the next effort must consolidate the 41% that already support climate action and identify an additional 10% of the electorate that can be persuaded to act on climate.

Islands

  • Washington’s islands performed strongly for I-732, with Vashon, Bainbridge, and the San Juan Islands all supporting I-732 with over 55% support.

King County

  • The 43rd legislative district strongly supported I-732 despite local progressive opposition with 70% support.
  • The 36th and 37th legislative districts supported I-732 with roughly 65% of the vote.
  • Every single majority-minority census tract in Seattle passed I-732, providing evidence that backs up existing local and national polling showing that support for climate action is strong among communities of color (see attached Seattle census population map).

Precinct Level Support

  • I-732 performed well, in some cases above 70%, in a significant number of precincts that trended but were not exclusively urban and younger. We are still evaluating what impact our grassroots voter engagement had at the precinct level, but at first glance in many areas support for I-732 does loosely correlate with areas of stronger grassroots voter engagement. Find a spreadsheet attached ranking each precinct by support for I-732 across most Washington Counties.

Attachments and Additional Resources

I-732 Campaign Overview including spending, endorsements, supporter and opposition activity: https://ballotpedia.org/Washington_Carbon_Emission_Tax_and_Sales_Tax_Reduction,_Initiative_732_(2016)

Seattle votes for I-732 by Legislative District Spreadsheet

Spokane Precinct Support for I-732 Map

City of Seattle People of Color Census Map

Puget Sound Counties Support for I-732 Map

Greater Seattle Support for I-732 Map

Statewide Precinct’s supporting I-732 Spreadsheet (large file)